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学者姓名：陈永雪
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Abstract ：
COVID-19 is erupting globally, and Wuhan successfully controlled it within a month. Infections arose from infectious persons outside hospitals. After data revision, data-based and model-based analyses were implemented, and the conclusions are as follows. The incubation period of most infected people may be 6-7 days. The number of infectious persons outside hospitals in Wuhan on January 20, 2020 was about 10000 and reached more than 20000 on the day of Lockdown; it exceeded 72000 on February 4. Both data-based and model-based analyses gave out the evolution of the reproduction number, which was over 2.5 in early January, went down to 1.62 in late January and 1.20 in early February, with a sudden drop to less than 0.5 due to the strict Stay-at-home management after February 11. Strategies of Stay-at-home, Safe-protective measures, and Ark hospitals were the main contributions to control COVID-19 in Wuhan. In Wuhan, 2 inflection points of COVID-19, exactly correspond to February 5 and February 15, the 2 days when Ark hospitals were introduced, and the complete implementation of Stay-at-home. Based on the expression of the reproduction number, group immunity is also discussed. It shows that only when the group immunization rate is over 75% can COVID-19 be under control; group immunity would be full infection and the total deaths will be 220000 for a city as big as Wuhan. Sensitivity analysis suggests that 30% of people staying at home in combination with better behavior changes, such as social-distancing and frequent handwashing, can effectively contain COVID-19. However, only when this proportion is over 60% can the controlled effect and efficiency like Wuhan be obtained.
Keyword ：
COVID-19 COVID-19 data-based data-based disease reproduction number disease reproduction number model-based model-based new coronavirus new coronavirus stay-at-home stay-at-home
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Zhang, Hui , Wang, Jingyu et al. Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number [J]. | DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS , 2022 , 17 . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number" . | DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS 17 (2022) . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Zhang, Hui , Wang, Jingyu , Li, Cheng , Yi, Ning , Wen, Yongxian . Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number . | DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS , 2022 , 17 . |
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Data-based analysis gives out an estimation of the incubation period. A dynamic model is established and discussed. Disease reproduction number reveals the high probability of COVID-19 pandemic, but strengthening the exposure of asymptomatic people will help to curb the transmission, and measures of contact-tracking and stay-at-home play a replaceable role. Discussions point out that social disruption can be avoided if the contact tracking rate can be more than 0.5. Investigations for re-opening show that a city of the same size as Wuhan can be reopened if new cases are continuously below 1000 for a few days and when they are less than 500, with the assurance of contact tracking associated with extensive testing. In short, tracking and testing are the prioritized strategies, while maintaining awareness can shorten the epidemic period and mobility restrictions can be avoided.
Keyword ：
awareness protection awareness protection contact tracking contact tracking COVID-19 COVID-19 extensive testing extensive testing re-open re-open reproduction number reproduction number
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Shen, Jiayu , Li, Shijing et al. Investigations on the Control of COVID-19 and Suggestions for Re-Open Based on Model Study [J]. | MATHEMATICS , 2022 , 10 (1) . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Investigations on the Control of COVID-19 and Suggestions for Re-Open Based on Model Study" . | MATHEMATICS 10 . 1 (2022) . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Shen, Jiayu , Li, Shijing , Wen, Yongxian . Investigations on the Control of COVID-19 and Suggestions for Re-Open Based on Model Study . | MATHEMATICS , 2022 , 10 (1) . |
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Due to the existence and variation of various viruses, an epidemic in which different strains spread at the same time will occur. here, an avian-human epidemic model with two strain viruses are established and analyzed. Both theoretical and simulation results reveal that the mixed infections intensify the epidemic and the dynamics become more complex and sensitive. There are six equilibria. The trivial equilibrium point is a high-order singular point and will undergo the transcritical bifurcations to bifurcate three equilibria. The existence and stability of equilibria mainly depend on five thresholds. A bifurcation portrait for the existence and stability of equilibria is presented. Simulations suggest that the key control measure is to develop the identification technology to eliminate the poultry infected with a high pathogenic virus preferentially, then the infected poultry with a low pathogenic virus in the recruitment and on farms. Controlling contact between human and poultry can effectively restrain the epidemic and controlling contagions in poultry can avoid great infection in humans.
Keyword ：
equilibra equilibra simulation simulation stability stability the mixed infections the mixed infections threshold threshold
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Zhang, Hui , Wang, Jingyu et al. Analyzing an Epidemic of Human Infections with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus [J]. | MATHEMATICS , 2022 , 10 (7) . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Analyzing an Epidemic of Human Infections with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus" . | MATHEMATICS 10 . 7 (2022) . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Zhang, Hui , Wang, Jingyu , Li, Cheng , Yi, Ning , Wen, Yongxian . Analyzing an Epidemic of Human Infections with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus . | MATHEMATICS , 2022 , 10 (7) . |
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Abstract ：
突发急性传染病对人类健康和经济发展构成了严重威胁.基于传染病动力学原理,更快地暴露更多的传染者是迅速遏制疾病传播的根本.分析了北京市2020年1—2月和6月新冠疫情的传播情形和疾控举措,疾病控制再生数和数值模拟表明:对于任何的传染病,基于信息技术接触追踪的感染者被动暴露和抗疫意识激发的感染者主动暴露是可以依赖的有效疾控策略.
Keyword ：
传染病控制 传染病控制 基本再生数 基本再生数 密接追踪 密接追踪 感染者暴露 感染者暴露 突发传染病 突发传染病
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| GB/T 7714 | 陈永雪 , 温永仙 . 感染者暴露策略在突发传染病控制中的效应研究 [J]. | 西北师范大学学报(自然科学版) , 2021 , 57 (06) : 25-30 . |
| MLA | 陈永雪 et al. "感染者暴露策略在突发传染病控制中的效应研究" . | 西北师范大学学报(自然科学版) 57 . 06 (2021) : 25-30 . |
| APA | 陈永雪 , 温永仙 . 感染者暴露策略在突发传染病控制中的效应研究 . | 西北师范大学学报(自然科学版) , 2021 , 57 (06) , 25-30 . |
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为分析传染病的传播与控制,研究了一类疾病发生率与潜伏期人群移出率受信息因素影响的SEIR传染病模型,利用下一代矩阵法得到了模型的基本再生数通过数学分析得到了模型平衡点的存在性.应用Lyapunov函数与Hurwitz判据证明了当基本再生数小于1时,无病平衡点是全局稳定的;当基本再生数大于1时,地方病平衡点是局部渐进稳定的.最后用计算机模拟进一步验证了理论分析的结果,并发现加强对传染病信息的实时共享、对染病者的及时隔离及严格的出行管控都有助于疫情防控.
Keyword ：
SEIR模型 SEIR模型 信息因素 信息因素 基本再生数 基本再生数 计算机模拟 计算机模拟
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| GB/T 7714 | 张杰豪 , 陈永雪 , 申佳瑜 et al. 信息效应下SEIR传染病模型的动力学分析 [J]. | 数学的实践与认识 , 2021 , 51 (11) : 316-323 . |
| MLA | 张杰豪 et al. "信息效应下SEIR传染病模型的动力学分析" . | 数学的实践与认识 51 . 11 (2021) : 316-323 . |
| APA | 张杰豪 , 陈永雪 , 申佳瑜 , 张慧 , 温永仙 . 信息效应下SEIR传染病模型的动力学分析 . | 数学的实践与认识 , 2021 , 51 (11) , 316-323 . |
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【目的】构造疾病发生率为信息有效传播率的函数,研究信息干预对疫情防控的作用。【方法】通过对模型的动力学分析,证明模型平衡点的存在性与稳定性并联系生物学意义。通过数值模拟探讨和体现模型参数对动力学行为的影响,并分析疾病控制策略的有效性。【结果】当潜伏期类输入比例为0时,模型存在无病平衡点是局部渐进稳定的;当潜伏期类输入比例不为0时,模型存在唯一的疾病平衡点无条件趋于局部渐进稳定。【结论】由理论和数值分析可知以下措施都将有利于疫情的防控:1)杜绝潜伏期人群的输入,同时控制病毒的传播途径使疾病传播系数下降;2)加强微信渠道疾病信息宣传以提高信息有效传播率;3)加强流感流行期间的不聚集和未有明显症状者戴口罩习惯的宣传以加大潜伏期者的移出率。
Keyword ：
信息效应 信息效应 动力学分析 动力学分析 平衡点 平衡点 流感 流感 疾病防控 疾病防控
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| GB/T 7714 | 张杰豪 , 陈永雪 , 温永仙 . 信息效应下病毒性流感传播模型的动力学性质 [J]. | 重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版) , 2020 , 37 (05) : 89-95 . |
| MLA | 张杰豪 et al. "信息效应下病毒性流感传播模型的动力学性质" . | 重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版) 37 . 05 (2020) : 89-95 . |
| APA | 张杰豪 , 陈永雪 , 温永仙 . 信息效应下病毒性流感传播模型的动力学性质 . | 重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版) , 2020 , 37 (05) , 89-95 . |
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In 2013, in mainland China, a novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus began to infect humans, followed by the annual outbreaks, and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. After introducing the statistical characteristics including the geographical distributions of the outbreaks, a SEV-SIRS eco-epidemiological model is established and analyzed. In this model, the factor of virus in environment is incorporated into the model as a class; the vaccine measure in poultry is taken into account in purpose of assessing its control effect in 2017 in China; the nonmonotonic contact function is adopted to characterize the psychosocial effect. The stability of disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) is obtained by the threshold theory; the stability of the endemic equilibrium point is gotten by the Bendixson criterion based on the geometric approach. Sensitivity analyses of system parameters indicate that the measure of vaccination in poultry can play its role but only when the vaccine rate is more than 98% can the disease control effect be effectively exerted, and the virus in environment is an extremely sensitive factor in the disease transmission and the epidemic control.
Keyword ：
geographical distribution geographical distribution human infections human infections sensitivity analysis sensitivity analysis stability stability virus in environment virus in environment
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Modelling and analyzing the epidemic of human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2017 in China [J]. | MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES , 2019 , 42 (13) : 4456-4471 . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Modelling and analyzing the epidemic of human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2017 in China" . | MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES 42 . 13 (2019) : 4456-4471 . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Modelling and analyzing the epidemic of human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2017 in China . | MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES , 2019 , 42 (13) , 4456-4471 . |
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In 2013 in mainland China, a novel avian influenza virus H7N9 began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans, followed by the annual outbreaks. By methods of GIS and kriging interpolation, we get the geographical distributions. We obtain the longitudinal characteristics of these outbreaks based on statistics and diagrams. After these spatiotemporal distributions, an eco-epidemiological model is established and analyzed. In this model, the general incidence functions, the factor of fully killed infected poultry, and the virus in environment are taken into account. Theoretical analysis shows that the endemic will be formed to a large extent once the H7N9 avian influenza virus exists in poultry. On the basis of dynamics, we explore the possible disease control measures by numerical simulations. Simulations indicate that measures of vaccination in poultry and stopping live poultry transactions are the primary choices for disease control in humans, and strengthened inhibition effects and environmental disinfections can effectively control the outbreak.
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus [J]. | COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE , 2019 , 2019 . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus" . | COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE 2019 (2019) . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus . | COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE , 2019 , 2019 . |
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An eco-epidemiological model is proposed to interpret the impact of an infectious disease on ecosystem, where prey is infected by lethal bacteria and the consumption of infected prey contributes to the negative growth of predator population. Of course, the required time delay is incorporated into the model. The biodiversity conservation is concerned. Stability, persistence, and bifurcation are carried out. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical analysis. Copyright (C) 2016 JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keyword ：
eco-epidemiological system eco-epidemiological system Hopf bifurcation Hopf bifurcation persistence persistence stability stability time delay time delay
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Impact on the predator population while lethal disease spreads in the prey [J]. | MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES , 2016 , 39 (11) : 2883-2895 . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Impact on the predator population while lethal disease spreads in the prey" . | MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES 39 . 11 (2016) : 2883-2895 . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Impact on the predator population while lethal disease spreads in the prey . | MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES , 2016 , 39 (11) , 2883-2895 . |
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In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people's hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword ：
Equilibria Equilibria Mutant avian influenza virus Mutant avian influenza virus Persistence Persistence Simulation Simulation Stability Stability
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region [J]. | JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY , 2015 , 367 : 180-188 . |
| MLA | Chen, Yongxue et al. "Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region" . | JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 367 (2015) : 180-188 . |
| APA | Chen, Yongxue , Wen, Yongxian . Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region . | JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY , 2015 , 367 , 180-188 . |
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