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学者姓名：郑海荣
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Abstract ：
An accurate prediction of carbon pricing is essential in carbon emission management, and also provides an important role for governments to formulate corresponding policies. However, due to the inherent complexity and dynamics of carbon price sequence, the effectiveness of different decomposition algorithms for carbon price remains to be tested. In addition, existing studies lack a systematic framework to explore the organic integration of external factors and secondary decomposition technology, and the feature processing of complex external factors still needs to be improved. In order to overcome the shortcomings of existing research, This paper presents a Variational Modal Decomposition(VMD) algorithm and a Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Second decomposition technology of Noise(CEEMDAN) decomposition algorithm, and extract the features of external factors by Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The HI-VMD-PE-CEEMDAN-XGBoost-Transformer model for predicting carbon price is constructed by the combined Transformer algorithm. Specifically, first, we use Hampel identifer(HI) to detect and rectify the anomalies in the original sequence. After applying Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD) decomposition algorithm, Permutation Entropy(PE) is utilized to reassemble the decomposed component. Quadratic Decomposition is performed by Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN) algorithm. Then, the XGBoost algorithm is employed to extract features of external factors and screen key factors as predictive input variables. Finally, Transformer, which has stronger capability of large-scale data parallel processing, is selected as the prediction model to achieve a more scientific and effective carbon price prediction. The empirical analysis results based on EU carbon market data verify the validity and superiority of the proposed model in different forecasting scenarios.
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| GB/T 7714 | Zheng, Hairong , Zhuang, Sikai , Zhang, Tingting . Research on forward multi-step prediction of EU carbon prices considering multiple factors new evidence from a hybrid model combining secondary decomposition technique and transformer [J]. | PLOS ONE , 2025 , 20 (6) . |
| MLA | Zheng, Hairong 等. "Research on forward multi-step prediction of EU carbon prices considering multiple factors new evidence from a hybrid model combining secondary decomposition technique and transformer" . | PLOS ONE 20 . 6 (2025) . |
| APA | Zheng, Hairong , Zhuang, Sikai , Zhang, Tingting . Research on forward multi-step prediction of EU carbon prices considering multiple factors new evidence from a hybrid model combining secondary decomposition technique and transformer . | PLOS ONE , 2025 , 20 (6) . |
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大数据如何助力贷款风险管理是金融科技时代的重要问题。本文首次考察农户使用手机银行时留下的数字足迹大数据，能否有效帮助银行进行风险管理。基于信号传递博弈理论，本文运用农商银行百万条农户贷款数据，揭示了农户银行数字足迹对贷款违约风险的影响。研究发现，农户银行数字足迹有效降低了贷款违约风险，且降低硬信息丰富群体贷款违约风险的作用强于软信息丰富群体。进一步分析表明，农户银行数字足迹对生产、经营等传统硬信息传递了有效的信息增量，对传统软信息传递的有效信息增量有限。异质性分析发现，在银行数字化转型程度越高、地区农村信用体系建设成熟度越高及普惠金融改革试验区的样本中，农户银行数字足迹降低贷款违约风险的作用效果越强。本文为发挥银行数字足迹等金融类大数据在贷款风险管理中的作用提供了事实依据。
Keyword ：
信号传递 信号传递 数字足迹 数字足迹 硬信息 硬信息 软信息 软信息 违约风险 违约风险
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| GB/T 7714 | 郑海荣 , 张洋 , 何婧 et al. 农户银行数字足迹与贷款违约风险 [J]. | 财贸经济 , 2025 , 46 (04) : 59-76 . |
| MLA | 郑海荣 et al. "农户银行数字足迹与贷款违约风险" . | 财贸经济 46 . 04 (2025) : 59-76 . |
| APA | 郑海荣 , 张洋 , 何婧 , 穆争社 . 农户银行数字足迹与贷款违约风险 . | 财贸经济 , 2025 , 46 (04) , 59-76 . |
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This study investigates the risk contagion characteristics between the green bonds (GBs) market and financial markets, with particular attention to the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). Given the limitations of traditional models in accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty and capturing nonlinear risk dependencies across diverse markets, this paper proposes a novel GARCH-MIDAS-D-Vine-Copula-CoVaR framework to comprehensively analyze the dynamic risk spillovers between the GBs market and heterogeneous financial sub-markets, including equities, bonds, and Bitcoin. The results show three main findings. First, when incorporating uncertainty factors, the risk spillovers between the GBs market and financial sub-markets exhibit notable heterogeneity: the stock market amplifies risk spillovers from GBs, the bond market serves as a buffer, while the effect of the Bitcoin market is relatively limited. Second, when considering the dynamic interactions among the three financial sub-markets jointly, the overall risk spillovers between the GBs market and the financial system tend to ease. Third, under major shocks, the risk spillovers between GBs and financial markets were significantly higher during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, though the latter exhibited longer persistence and greater frequency of fluctuations. These findings provide valuable insights for environmentally conscious investors and regulators, enabling them to make investment and regulatory decisions based on the distinct characteristics of risk spillovers between GBs and various financial markets.
Keyword ：
Financial market Financial market Green bond Green bond Risk contagion Risk contagion Uncertainties Uncertainties
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| GB/T 7714 | Zheng, Hairong , Wang, Sikai , Zhang, Tingting . Dynamic risk spillovers between green bond markets and financial markets: Novel perspective integrating uncertainty factors and multivariate Copula methods [J]. | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION , 2025 , 533 . |
| MLA | Zheng, Hairong et al. "Dynamic risk spillovers between green bond markets and financial markets: Novel perspective integrating uncertainty factors and multivariate Copula methods" . | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 533 (2025) . |
| APA | Zheng, Hairong , Wang, Sikai , Zhang, Tingting . Dynamic risk spillovers between green bond markets and financial markets: Novel perspective integrating uncertainty factors and multivariate Copula methods . | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION , 2025 , 533 . |
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Utilizing microdata from six provinces in East China, this study centers on the phenomenon of "fraud," employing a three -stage Probit model with dual sample selectivity to explore the impact of financial knowledge on residents' safeguarding of financial consumer rights and interests. This methodological approach effectively addresses estimation bias arising from concerns related to dual sample selectivity. The process of residents safeguarding their rights and interests when confronted with fraud unfolds in three sequential stages: "pre -fraud prevention, during fraud loss avoidance, and post -fraud rights protection." Key findings indicate that, on the whole, higher levels of financial knowledge foster residents' protection of financial consumer rights and interests. Specifically, heightened financial literacy is associated with an increased likelihood of encountering fraud, a reduced probability of incurring losses post -fraud, and an enhanced propensity for pursuing rights protection thereafter. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of financial knowledge is more pronounced among middle-aged and elderly individuals, rural inhabitants, and women. Furthermore, concerning various types of fraud, the amplification effect of financial knowledge is particularly evident in cases of telecom fraud and online fraud, though not in traditional fraud cases. Additionally, moderation effect analysis underscores that, overall, heightened attention to information, improved digital literacy, and increased social interaction can reinforce the positive influence of financial knowledge. This paper provides valuable insights for strengthening the protection of residents' financial rights and ensuring the security of their assets.
Keyword ：
Chinese resident Chinese resident Financial consumer rights Financial consumer rights Financial knowledge Financial knowledge Fraud phenomenon Fraud phenomenon Three -stage probit model Three -stage probit model
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| GB/T 7714 | Zheng, Hairong , Li, Qinghai , Xia, Chuanxin . Does financial literacy contribute to facilitating residents in safeguarding their rights as financial consumers?A three-stage study based on the perspective of "fraud" phenomenon [J]. | INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE , 2024 , 93 : 720-735 . |
| MLA | Zheng, Hairong et al. "Does financial literacy contribute to facilitating residents in safeguarding their rights as financial consumers?A three-stage study based on the perspective of "fraud" phenomenon" . | INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE 93 (2024) : 720-735 . |
| APA | Zheng, Hairong , Li, Qinghai , Xia, Chuanxin . Does financial literacy contribute to facilitating residents in safeguarding their rights as financial consumers?A three-stage study based on the perspective of "fraud" phenomenon . | INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE , 2024 , 93 , 720-735 . |
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The continuous rise in global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) has intensified market volatility, altered investor preferences, impacted capital flows, and complicating the risk spillover between green bonds and energy markets. Existing research has not adequately addressed the impact of different uncertainties on risk contagion or analyzed the risk contagion characteristics between sub-markets. Therefore, this study first establishes a GARCH-MIDAS model that simultaneously considers EPU and GPR. Secondly, it breaks through the traditional binary risk research framework by employing a D-Copula model to characterize the nonlinear dependence between green bonds and various sub-markets. To achieve this, a new GARCH-MIDASD-Copula- CoVaR model was developed to dynamically describe the characteristics of risk spillover.The results show that the impact of different energy sub-markets on green bonds varies significantly, with the overall energy market exhibiting weaker risk spillover effects compared to individual sub-markets. Focusing on the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study reveals the risk spillover characteristics between green bonds and energy markets during different periods, providing a new perspective for studying the risk spillover relationship between the two markets.
Keyword ：
Energy market Energy market Green bond Green bond Risk contagion Risk contagion Uncertainties Uncertainties
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| GB/T 7714 | Zheng, Hairong , Wang, Sikai , Zhang, Tingting . Dynamic risk spillovers between green bonds and energy markets: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS-D-Copula-CoVaR approach considering uncertainties [J]. | RENEWABLE ENERGY , 2024 , 239 . |
| MLA | Zheng, Hairong et al. "Dynamic risk spillovers between green bonds and energy markets: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS-D-Copula-CoVaR approach considering uncertainties" . | RENEWABLE ENERGY 239 (2024) . |
| APA | Zheng, Hairong , Wang, Sikai , Zhang, Tingting . Dynamic risk spillovers between green bonds and energy markets: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS-D-Copula-CoVaR approach considering uncertainties . | RENEWABLE ENERGY , 2024 , 239 . |
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金融机构农户信贷供给规模会影响农户信贷可得性，从而影响乡村振兴战略的实施和共同富裕的实现。利用F省农信系统67家农村信用社(农村商业银行)2018—2020年808 084个样本构成的混合截面数据，分析地理距离、银行数字化水平对金融机构农户信贷供给规模的影响，发现：农户到乡镇行社网点的地理距离对金融机构农户信贷供给规模存在负向影响；但银行的数字化水平越高，地理距离对金融机构农户信贷供给规模的抑制作用会越小。异质性分析结果表明，银行数字化转型缓解地理距离对金融机构农户信贷供给规模的抑制作用会受到农户数字金融素养、区域内银行竞争程度和银行商业化程度的影响。进一步分析发现，银行数字化转型对农户信用贷款、中长期贷款和投向农林牧渔贷款的缓解作用更大。因此，应该积极引导和规范银行数字化转型、重视培养和提升农户的数字金融素养、适当推进农村地区银行的商业化改制。
Keyword ：
农户信贷供给规模 农户信贷供给规模 地理距离 地理距离 普惠金融 普惠金融 银行数字化转型 银行数字化转型
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| GB/T 7714 | 郑海荣 , 马九杰 , 王馨 . 地理距离、银行数字化转型与金融机构农户信贷供给规模——来自F省农信系统的证据 [J]. | 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版) , 2023 , 22 (01) : 114-134,207 . |
| MLA | 郑海荣 et al. "地理距离、银行数字化转型与金融机构农户信贷供给规模——来自F省农信系统的证据" . | 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版) 22 . 01 (2023) : 114-134,207 . |
| APA | 郑海荣 , 马九杰 , 王馨 . 地理距离、银行数字化转型与金融机构农户信贷供给规模——来自F省农信系统的证据 . | 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版) , 2023 , 22 (01) , 114-134,207 . |
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通过运用因子分析法测评农户金融素养，运用有序多分类Logistic回归分析普惠金融信贷服务满意度的影响因素。研究发现：8成以上的农户对普惠金融信贷服务比较满意；经营非农业为主农户的金融素养高于经营农业为主农户；全额获贷、续贷、信用贷款与普惠金融信贷服务满意度呈正相关关系；金融素养、贷款利率、经营非农业为主农户的家庭年收入与普惠金融信贷服务满意度呈负相关关系。基于此，建议应通过多元化的金融服务举措，精准有效对接不同类型农户的融资需求,提升农村普惠金融服务水平。
Keyword ：
信贷服务 信贷服务 农户满意度 农户满意度 普惠金融 普惠金融 金融素养 金融素养
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| GB/T 7714 | 陈潇湘 , 郑海荣 . 满意度视角的农村普惠金融信贷服务问题研究——以普惠金融改革试验区福建样本为例 [J]. | 金融理论与实践 , 2022 , (09) : 69-80 . |
| MLA | 陈潇湘 et al. "满意度视角的农村普惠金融信贷服务问题研究——以普惠金融改革试验区福建样本为例" . | 金融理论与实践 09 (2022) : 69-80 . |
| APA | 陈潇湘 , 郑海荣 . 满意度视角的农村普惠金融信贷服务问题研究——以普惠金融改革试验区福建样本为例 . | 金融理论与实践 , 2022 , (09) , 69-80 . |
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基于我国宏观审慎政策的视角，以“金融三元悖论”为研究对象，通过对“货币三元悖论”指数的优化，设计、搜集并测度2002—2018年金融全球化指数、金融稳定指数和金融政策独立性指数，并通过线性回归分析、格兰杰因果分析和向量自回归分析对三元悖论的存在性和相互影响关系进行检验。研究发现：我国正在由“金融稳定+金融政策独立+有限的金融全球化”向“金融相对稳定+金融政策相对独立+金融全球化”发展；“金融三元悖论”在我国长期存在；我国近年来金融政策趋于灵活，更有利于防范和应对国际金融风险。
Keyword ：
VAR模型 VAR模型 宏观审慎政策 宏观审慎政策 货币三元悖论 货币三元悖论 金融三元悖论 金融三元悖论
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| GB/T 7714 | 杨思崟 , 郑海荣 , 张瑞琛 . 宏观审慎政策视角下我国“金融三元悖论”的实证研究 [J]. | 中共福建省委党校(福建行政学院)学报 , 2022 , (01) : 158-168 . |
| MLA | 杨思崟 et al. "宏观审慎政策视角下我国“金融三元悖论”的实证研究" . | 中共福建省委党校(福建行政学院)学报 01 (2022) : 158-168 . |
| APA | 杨思崟 , 郑海荣 , 张瑞琛 . 宏观审慎政策视角下我国“金融三元悖论”的实证研究 . | 中共福建省委党校(福建行政学院)学报 , 2022 , (01) , 158-168 . |
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采用2020年福建省宁德市和龙岩市国家级普惠金融试验区农户调研数据，结合基于工具变量的Heckprobit模型，识别农户不同金融渠道信贷需求尤其是信贷约束的影响因素，重点考察金融知识的影响、异质性及其调节效应。研究表明：金融知识会显著提升正规渠道、非正规渠道乃至总体的信贷需求，同时也会缓解正规渠道、非正规渠道乃至总体的信贷约束。对于信贷需求的提升以及对信贷约束的缓解，金融知识在正规渠道中的作用要比非正规渠道更为明显。金融知识缓解信贷约束的作用，在参与过技术培训或者使用互联网的农户家庭中更为明显，无论是正规渠道、非正规渠道抑或是总体上均成立。随着市场化程度的提升，金融知识缓解信贷约束的作用会在正规渠道或者总体上得到提升，但在非正规渠道上并无显著改变。
Keyword ：
Ⅳ-Heckprobit模型 Ⅳ-Heckprobit模型 信贷约束 信贷约束 正规和非正规渠道 正规和非正规渠道 金融知识 金融知识
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| GB/T 7714 | 郑海荣 , 马九杰 , 唐振鹏 . 金融知识对农户信贷约束的影响研究——来自国家级普惠金融试验区的证据 [J]. | 福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版) , 2022 , 36 (01) : 58-66 . |
| MLA | 郑海荣 et al. "金融知识对农户信贷约束的影响研究——来自国家级普惠金融试验区的证据" . | 福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版) 36 . 01 (2022) : 58-66 . |
| APA | 郑海荣 , 马九杰 , 唐振鹏 . 金融知识对农户信贷约束的影响研究——来自国家级普惠金融试验区的证据 . | 福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版) , 2022 , 36 (01) , 58-66 . |
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在对目前主要农村合作金融组织形式的发展瓶颈分析的基础上,结合农村经济和农村社会发展情况,论证中国农村合作金融发展的合理组织形式是依托于农民专业合作社,并结合农民专业合作社内部信用互助业务全国唯一试点省份——山东省的试点情况,从政府介入、法律身份、风险防范、金融监督、资金来源等方面对农村合作金融发展提出建议。
Keyword ：
农民专业合作社 农民专业合作社 新型农村合作金融 新型农村合作金融
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| GB/T 7714 | 游碧蓉 , 唐征 , 陈宁 et al. 农村合作金融组织的形式选择与发展建议 [J]. | 福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版) , 2021 , 24 (02) : 52-60 . |
| MLA | 游碧蓉 et al. "农村合作金融组织的形式选择与发展建议" . | 福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版) 24 . 02 (2021) : 52-60 . |
| APA | 游碧蓉 , 唐征 , 陈宁 , 吴东阳 , 郑海荣 . 农村合作金融组织的形式选择与发展建议 . | 福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版) , 2021 , 24 (02) , 52-60 . |
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